From 1990 to 1999, NFL quarterbacks passed for 4,000+ yards 19 times. That means that there was an average of 1.9 quarterbacks throwing for 4,000+ yards every season. In 1997, no quarterback threw for more than 4,000 yards and from 1990 to 1992 only one quarterback threw for 4,000+ yards.
From the years 2000-2009, an average of 4.5 quarterbacks threw for 4,000+ yards. This season, 10 different quarterbacks threw for at least 4,000 yards. If you take from 2006-2009, the average rises to 6.75 quarterbacks reaching the 4,000 yard plateau a year. To help put this further into perspective, lets take it back 30 years.
The decade of 1970 to 1979 provided the NFL's fans with a single 4,000 yard passer. Dan Fouts threw for 4,082 yards in 1979. The average passing leader put up approximately 2,690 yards a season. Why such disparity?
Not a simple question to answer, and maybe we shall dive deeper into it at a later date but there are some definitive quick answers. In the '70s, the NFL season as only 14 games long but even if they played 16 games, most quarterbacks would not have hit 4,000 yards anyway. The NFL has also instituted certain rules that inhibit how aggressive defenses can play, giving wide receivers more space to maneuver and get open for their quarterback who cannot be hit and wear skirts that the league provides for them. There is also such a larger emphasis on year round training, crazy medicine to help people recover from injuries and a whole lot more reasons why offenses are more explosive now than they were 30 years ago.
Friday, January 29, 2010
Why Suh is the logical pick for the Rams, but maybe not the right pick.
If you were unfortunate enough to be a St. Louis Rams fan last year, my heart goes out to you. They may not have been the worst team in the history of the league (the 1976 Bucs and 2008 Lions own that title) but they weren't that far behind. Let me blow your mind with some of these stats here: they lost each game by an average of 16 points. Their lone win came against a 2-14 Lions team that was fresh off an 0-16 season. They allowed 2.75 sacks a game. They were shut out twice this year, the 0-16 Lions were not shut out once. They were the lowest scoring offense (10.9 PPG) that was backed up by a defense that gave up the second most points in the league (27.3 PPG). They allowed the Indianapolis Colts to nearly double their rushing average and average 6 yards a carry on the ground. They were at least competitive in 4 or 5 games and gave two playoff teams (Arizona and New Orleans) a run for their money. Their Quarterbacks combined for 2,970 yards, 12 TDs and 21 INTs. 2% of their passes resulted in TDs while nearly 4% of their passes resulted in an interception. That was most of the bad stuff, but there has to be some good stuff they can build on.
Steven Jackson. That was the lone part of this team that was really really good, and you cannot argue that. Jackson was 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards and averaged a respectable 4.4 yards per carry. He led the team in receptions with 51 and racked up more than 1,700 yards of total offense. Jackson accounted for nearly 39% of the teams total offensive output. So clearly, you have a good piece of an unfinished puzzle in him but after that, there is a severe drop off.
The offensive line actually may be in good shape. They did give up nearly 3 sacks per game, but they also produced the second leading rusher in the league with almost zero threat of a passing game, which has to count for something. They are young and just drafted a guy in Jason Smith who should take the place of long time Rams hero Orlando Pace. The receiving corp is young and kinda talented but Adrian Wilson isn't losing sleep over guarding Donnie Avery. The free agent market is not great for WR's unless you want T.O. or a 37 year old Isaac Bruce. TE's are also a relatively weak position in free agency but Watson from New England would be a nice security blanket for whoever is QB next year. Opposing QB's did not have much to fear last year from fairly horrid defense.
Ndamukong Suh is one of the greatest defensive tackles to come out of college in nearly 20 years. The last time a defensive tackle was in the Heisman race, won the Outland and Lombardi trophy was when Washington Huskies DT Steve Emtman was killing it in the Pac-10 and winning national championships. Suh is a dominant force who will instantly upgrade any defense that he is thrust into. He is too good for any team to pass on and if the Rams do, they will be sorry. Their offense needs some weapons and the Quarterback is arguably the most important position on the field but sometimes the best offense is a good defense. Suh would help the 27th ranked rush defense and his pressure on the QB could help the 25th ranked pass defense as well.
There are pieces in place on the defense that will be good one day and Suh will do nothing but help them. However, the most important position on the field is quarterback. Every team in the league that is successful has a really good quarterback running the offense. Each quarterback in this draft has their fair share of questions, will Sam Bradford recover fully from his shoulder injury? Would it be too much of a stretch for Jimmy Clausen at number 1? Could Colt McCoy be a viable pick? Or should they draft Tebow in the 2nd round? All the questions attached to these quarterbacks make it seem all the more reasonable that Suh be the first pick and help fortify the defense. But to win in the NFL, you need a quarterback.
Steven Jackson. That was the lone part of this team that was really really good, and you cannot argue that. Jackson was 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards and averaged a respectable 4.4 yards per carry. He led the team in receptions with 51 and racked up more than 1,700 yards of total offense. Jackson accounted for nearly 39% of the teams total offensive output. So clearly, you have a good piece of an unfinished puzzle in him but after that, there is a severe drop off.
The offensive line actually may be in good shape. They did give up nearly 3 sacks per game, but they also produced the second leading rusher in the league with almost zero threat of a passing game, which has to count for something. They are young and just drafted a guy in Jason Smith who should take the place of long time Rams hero Orlando Pace. The receiving corp is young and kinda talented but Adrian Wilson isn't losing sleep over guarding Donnie Avery. The free agent market is not great for WR's unless you want T.O. or a 37 year old Isaac Bruce. TE's are also a relatively weak position in free agency but Watson from New England would be a nice security blanket for whoever is QB next year. Opposing QB's did not have much to fear last year from fairly horrid defense.
Ndamukong Suh is one of the greatest defensive tackles to come out of college in nearly 20 years. The last time a defensive tackle was in the Heisman race, won the Outland and Lombardi trophy was when Washington Huskies DT Steve Emtman was killing it in the Pac-10 and winning national championships. Suh is a dominant force who will instantly upgrade any defense that he is thrust into. He is too good for any team to pass on and if the Rams do, they will be sorry. Their offense needs some weapons and the Quarterback is arguably the most important position on the field but sometimes the best offense is a good defense. Suh would help the 27th ranked rush defense and his pressure on the QB could help the 25th ranked pass defense as well.
There are pieces in place on the defense that will be good one day and Suh will do nothing but help them. However, the most important position on the field is quarterback. Every team in the league that is successful has a really good quarterback running the offense. Each quarterback in this draft has their fair share of questions, will Sam Bradford recover fully from his shoulder injury? Would it be too much of a stretch for Jimmy Clausen at number 1? Could Colt McCoy be a viable pick? Or should they draft Tebow in the 2nd round? All the questions attached to these quarterbacks make it seem all the more reasonable that Suh be the first pick and help fortify the defense. But to win in the NFL, you need a quarterback.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
If this really is the end for Kurt Warner then it is a sad day.
The first time I heard of Kurt Warner was January 2, 2000. The St. Louis Rams were playing my favorite team, the Philadelphia Eagles. There was this guy who the announcers had said was bagging groceries and playing in the area league the year before this. And he was the quarterback of a team that was 13-2 heading into the last week of the regular season. The next thing I knew, he was winning the NFL League MVP and leading his team to the most exciting super bowl that I have ever seen.
This guy has had the most roller coaster career of any quarterback that I can remember. Small time school product, drafted by the Iowa Barnstormers then five years later MVP of the highest level of competition. He would go on to win another MVP and then just as quickly as he had arrived, he seemingly left. This kid named Marc Bulger was lookin' real good and Warner was released then signed by the team that I hate, the New York Giants. I wanted nothing more than for him to fall flat on his face, but its not personal its just business.
Lucky for me, he did not play well and was gone after one year. He then had two sub-par years in the Arizona desert and then BOOM! He followed with three straight years of at least 3400 yards and 26 TDs, two playoff appearances and one Super bowl loss. Oh, and I forgot to mention, the guy has seven kids and is one of the nicest people in the NFL. His team mates on the Rams called him "the pope".
I wish Kurt Warner and his family nothing but luck in their future endeavors and I thank him for being a model professional athlete, but more importantly a wonderful human being.
This guy has had the most roller coaster career of any quarterback that I can remember. Small time school product, drafted by the Iowa Barnstormers then five years later MVP of the highest level of competition. He would go on to win another MVP and then just as quickly as he had arrived, he seemingly left. This kid named Marc Bulger was lookin' real good and Warner was released then signed by the team that I hate, the New York Giants. I wanted nothing more than for him to fall flat on his face, but its not personal its just business.
Lucky for me, he did not play well and was gone after one year. He then had two sub-par years in the Arizona desert and then BOOM! He followed with three straight years of at least 3400 yards and 26 TDs, two playoff appearances and one Super bowl loss. Oh, and I forgot to mention, the guy has seven kids and is one of the nicest people in the NFL. His team mates on the Rams called him "the pope".
I wish Kurt Warner and his family nothing but luck in their future endeavors and I thank him for being a model professional athlete, but more importantly a wonderful human being.
Peyton Manning: The Greatest Quarterback of all time?
The debate of "greatest ever" of nearly anything in the world can almost never get a clear cut answer as to whom is the undoubted number one. Sports, specifically football, is a particularly interesting and often tricky debate mainly because of the team aspect, different eras, different rules, yada yada. So when I claim that Peyton Manning is the greatest QB ever, I am going to add in that he is the best post 1974. Prior to that I would say Otto Graham could probably take the cake. He led the Browns to 10 division and/or league titles from 1946 to 1955. That is pretty ridiculous.
Post 1974, I compared Mr. Manning to an elite group of QB's that either have or will go down in history as some of the best ever. I did not compare Manning to some greats that could make the list such as Aikman, Elway and Fouts. I also could be showing my relative young age by picking a couple of QBs that are still active. The Five QBs that I would put on Mannings level are Brett Favre, Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Dan Marino and Terry Bradshaw. Bradshaw gets the nod over Elway and Aikman because of his four Superbowls but statistically, he is nowhere near the other guys. First lets take one guy from the list that Peyton Manning is not trailing in most career stats.
Bradshaw is nowhere near the regular season QB that Manning is, however his Superbowl stats are really impressive. 4 wins, 9-4 TD to INT over 300 yards a game and a 112 rating. In 1978 he threw for 318 yards with 4-1 TDs to INT and had a 119 rating. Pretty good. But those were some amazing defenses he had in Pittsburgh and two great wide recievers to combine with a hall of fame running back, so maybe Bradshaw is getting too much credit. His regular season numbers are not great and Manning has more yards, TDs and less picks than Bradshaw. The next names are much more worthy of being compared to Manning.
Right now Dan Marino and Brett Favre are the only names between the top of the career passing TDs and Manning. Favre has played in 7 more seasons than Manning while Marino has 5 on him. Assuming Manning plays 7 more seasons, to match Marino, he will have to average a measly 1600 yards and 7 TDs a season. Manning could probably play two more seasons and pass Marinos records. Marino has only one MVP while Manning has 4 and Manning has one Super bowl with the possibility of winning a second in just over a week from now.
Brett freakin' Favre is arguably one of the best QBs to play the game of football. He leads the career NFL records for passing yards (69,329), TDs (497), INTs (317) and consecutive MVP awards (3). If Favre comes back in 2010, he could also pass John Elway as the most sacked QB of all time if he goes down 14 more times. If Manning continues playing for 7 more seasons, he will have to average 18 TD passes and 2743 yards a season to tie Favre. Manning has never thrown for less than 26 TDs and 3739 yards in one season. Manning has also thrown 20+ picks only twice and once was his rookie year. Favre has thrown 20+ picks 6 times. Right now they are both tied in the Super Bowl department but Manning could overtake that soon. Manning has 4 MVPs while Favre has 3 which he won in consecutive seasons. If Manning wins next year he will tie that record as well. Manning averages more yards a game, yards an attempt than Favre while being more accurate (64.8%-62%) and a higher average QB rating (95.2 to 86.6). I have no idea how you compute QB ratings but I know that having one over 90 is a good season and Manning has done it 9 times while going over 100 in 4 seasons. Favre has 9 seasons of a rating more than 90 but only 1 season over 100. Favre also has more wins than Manning (169-117) but Manning could easily break that as well.
Finally the last two QBs to compare him to are Tom Brady and Joe Montana. They both make this list not necessarily for their regular season performance but their post season dominance. Manning has more passing yards, TDs, MVPs better QB rating, more accurate, equal or more wins, more yards per game, more yards per attempt and more hilarious TV commericals than Brady and Montana. The reason they are held in such stature is because of their ridiculous dominance during the playoffs and particulary in the Super Bowl. In 4 Super Bowls, Montana has over 1100 yards, 11 TDs and no interceptions. The dude needs to be checked whether or not he is human. I think Peyton is certainly better than Brady for the statistical reasons mentioned but he has a little way to go before he can be seated above Montana in post season lore.
All in all, I would say Peyton Manning could be looked at the way people look at Eldrick Woods. Sooner or later he is going to pass all of the records that historians and stat addicts hold dear. I say Bravo, Mr. Manning, you are the best I have ever seen and I cannot wait to continue watching.
Post 1974, I compared Mr. Manning to an elite group of QB's that either have or will go down in history as some of the best ever. I did not compare Manning to some greats that could make the list such as Aikman, Elway and Fouts. I also could be showing my relative young age by picking a couple of QBs that are still active. The Five QBs that I would put on Mannings level are Brett Favre, Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Dan Marino and Terry Bradshaw. Bradshaw gets the nod over Elway and Aikman because of his four Superbowls but statistically, he is nowhere near the other guys. First lets take one guy from the list that Peyton Manning is not trailing in most career stats.
Bradshaw is nowhere near the regular season QB that Manning is, however his Superbowl stats are really impressive. 4 wins, 9-4 TD to INT over 300 yards a game and a 112 rating. In 1978 he threw for 318 yards with 4-1 TDs to INT and had a 119 rating. Pretty good. But those were some amazing defenses he had in Pittsburgh and two great wide recievers to combine with a hall of fame running back, so maybe Bradshaw is getting too much credit. His regular season numbers are not great and Manning has more yards, TDs and less picks than Bradshaw. The next names are much more worthy of being compared to Manning.
Right now Dan Marino and Brett Favre are the only names between the top of the career passing TDs and Manning. Favre has played in 7 more seasons than Manning while Marino has 5 on him. Assuming Manning plays 7 more seasons, to match Marino, he will have to average a measly 1600 yards and 7 TDs a season. Manning could probably play two more seasons and pass Marinos records. Marino has only one MVP while Manning has 4 and Manning has one Super bowl with the possibility of winning a second in just over a week from now.
Brett freakin' Favre is arguably one of the best QBs to play the game of football. He leads the career NFL records for passing yards (69,329), TDs (497), INTs (317) and consecutive MVP awards (3). If Favre comes back in 2010, he could also pass John Elway as the most sacked QB of all time if he goes down 14 more times. If Manning continues playing for 7 more seasons, he will have to average 18 TD passes and 2743 yards a season to tie Favre. Manning has never thrown for less than 26 TDs and 3739 yards in one season. Manning has also thrown 20+ picks only twice and once was his rookie year. Favre has thrown 20+ picks 6 times. Right now they are both tied in the Super Bowl department but Manning could overtake that soon. Manning has 4 MVPs while Favre has 3 which he won in consecutive seasons. If Manning wins next year he will tie that record as well. Manning averages more yards a game, yards an attempt than Favre while being more accurate (64.8%-62%) and a higher average QB rating (95.2 to 86.6). I have no idea how you compute QB ratings but I know that having one over 90 is a good season and Manning has done it 9 times while going over 100 in 4 seasons. Favre has 9 seasons of a rating more than 90 but only 1 season over 100. Favre also has more wins than Manning (169-117) but Manning could easily break that as well.
Finally the last two QBs to compare him to are Tom Brady and Joe Montana. They both make this list not necessarily for their regular season performance but their post season dominance. Manning has more passing yards, TDs, MVPs better QB rating, more accurate, equal or more wins, more yards per game, more yards per attempt and more hilarious TV commericals than Brady and Montana. The reason they are held in such stature is because of their ridiculous dominance during the playoffs and particulary in the Super Bowl. In 4 Super Bowls, Montana has over 1100 yards, 11 TDs and no interceptions. The dude needs to be checked whether or not he is human. I think Peyton is certainly better than Brady for the statistical reasons mentioned but he has a little way to go before he can be seated above Montana in post season lore.
All in all, I would say Peyton Manning could be looked at the way people look at Eldrick Woods. Sooner or later he is going to pass all of the records that historians and stat addicts hold dear. I say Bravo, Mr. Manning, you are the best I have ever seen and I cannot wait to continue watching.
Random (yet great) Sports Stat of the Day: 555-0
I am not a Michigan Wolverines football fan. However, I did find a statistic pertaining to that particular team that almost made my head explode. The 1901 Michigan Wolverines Football team won the Big-10 conference championship and the National Championship. They outscored their opponents 555-0. Thats right, 555 to a big 'ol goose egg.
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